Connexions staff are facing up to their toughest year yet. At the start of April, the young people's advice service will be stripped of its independence and control will be handed to local authorities.

The idea behind the government- ordered change is to get those working with teenagers to provide services that are more integrated. But the transition will not be easy, as a CYP Now survey of Connexions services has revealed.

The survey received 52 responses from England's 149 local authorities. It finds 18 per cent intend to shed staff as part of the transition, with a further eight per cent unsure. It also reveals eight per cent would close at least one of their centres, with another six per cent unsure. These findings provide the clearest picture of the impact of the transition on Connexions to date.

In Merseyside, for example, 44 redundancies have been approved. Separate enquiries by CYP Now reveal at least 40 jobs and 10 centres stand to be lost across Hampshire.

Jon Richards, senior national officer at Unison's education workforce unit, says the losses are no surprise. "These figures chime with the work we've been doing over the past year examining the cutbacks and closures," he says.

But Steve Stewart, executive director of Connexions Coventry & Warwickshire, is surprised by the proportion of services cutting jobs. "I expected the big blow to come in 2009/10 with the introduction of the new funding formula, which will reduce the ability to commission Connexions services for many local authorities. However, 82 per cent of those you surveyed aren't cutting jobs."

The National Association of Connexions Partners, which is due to close its doors as a result of the changes, is pessimistic about the future of the service. "This is not something anyone in Connexions would have voted for, but it's here now and we have to live with it," says Roger Little, the association's interim executive director.

A dip in performance is inevitable, as are budget cuts, due to the loss of ringfenced cash from central government, he adds. However, while the figures suggest many hundreds of jobs could be lost from Connexions services, the bulk of these losses appear to be from management and administrative staff, rather than personal advisers.

"Most redundancies are from back office staff," says Chris Evans, executive director of the Institute of Careers Guidance. "Inevitably, when Connexions joins a local authority that already has someone doing their accounts, there's bound to be redundancies."

But just because job losses will affect back office rather than frontline staff, it doesn't mean the quality of work will be protected, says Richards. "Who is going to take on this work?" he asks. "Admin staff in local authorities are already overworked and have borne the brunt of recent cuts. You can't keep living off efficiency savings - it's like trying to get a quart out of a pint jug."

And the impact goes beyond administrators, he says. "The worry is the effect this will have on the tracking of young people's progress. Potentially the service they get will suffer. If advisers don't have the administrative support they will spend more time doing that work themselves, which means less time working with young people."

Evans says experienced frontline and managerial staff will still be lost because of the changes. "Staff are being offered voluntary redundancies and a lot of the employees taking them are experienced staff, who take their skills with them when they go. This is going to have a negative impact on the quality of services," he says.

Despite this gloomy picture, Little says the changes could bring benefits in the long term. Staff who remain in council-run Connexions could get better career development and training. And the integration of different services could potentially lead to more efficient services for teenagers.

Indeed, there has been criticism of Connexions' work almost since the day it was set up in 2001. In 2004, MPs on Parliament's Public Accounts Committee accused the service of having done little to improve school-based careers advice. And the following year MPs on the Education and Skills Select Committee said Connexions' emphasis on those most in need of help came "at the expense of young people in general".

Even within the sector it has been the target of criticism. "There are problems with Connexions," says Fiona Blacke, chief executive of The National Youth Agency and former chief executive of Connexions Tees Valley. "There hasn't been that link with other services and I think it will do it good to be brought into the council fold."

On the long-term prospects for Connexions, both Evans and Richards say it's still too early to tell if quality will suffer. "It depends on who does what and it will vary from service to service," says Richards. "But we know some local authorities are top-slicing budgets so the level of service in some areas will definitely get worse."

Evans says it's unclear whether the job and centre losses revealed in CYP Now's survey will result in poorer quality services. "I don't think the way the service is organised is that important ultimately," he says. "In some areas, careers guidance was negatively affected by the introduction of Connexions and current changes will have a negative impact elsewhere. But every young person needs access to careers guidance. Local authorities should put in the resources to meet the information, advice and guidance quality standards. That's the government's view of what should be happening."

But, despite the uncertainty during the transition phase and the looming threat of the new funding formula, Stewart says it's important to remember Connexions has continued to deliver despite the reorganisation and the anxiety that comes with it.

"The latest figures on young people not in employment, education and training are due soon and I'm expecting another year-on-year improvement," he says. "People in Connexions have been fantastic, retaining that progress in the midst of this angst. They are used to managing it. There's a lot of directors of children's services who, whether they take the service in-house or commission it out, see it as a valuable resource and a service that can respond to change quicker than others."

- Research compiled by Andy Hillier

CUTBACKS AND CLOSURES

Percentage of local authorities that intend to make Connexions staff redundancies - 18%

Percentage of local authorities that plan to close Connexions centres - 8%

Figures based on 52 responses to 149 Freedom of Information requests

A BRIEF HISTORY OF CONNEXIONS

The government first announced plans to set up a support service for young people in Learning to Succeed: A New Framework for Post-16 Learning in 1999. The aim was to smooth the transition from compulsory education to post-16 learning for young people.

It took two years until the first of the 47 Connexions partnerships opened, offering careers advice, targeted support to young people not in employment, education or training and information about local services for 13- to 19-year-olds.

However, the cost of running the service was huge. A government study in 2004/05 showed that Connexions employed 15,000 staff nationally at a cost of £533m a year. The high spend caused resentment among schools and youth services.

Many in Connexions feared the 2005 green paper Youth Matters would spell the end for the service, but the government decided instead to hand control from central government to local authorities, imposing a deadline of April 2008 for this transition to be completed.

CASE STUDY - CONNEXIONS NORTHUMBERLAND

Model after April: Run by Igen, an outside private contractor

Reasons for the move: "To give providers an opportunity to demonstrate what they could do for our young people," says a Northumberland County Council spokesperson

"Sorry about the noise," says Connexions Northumberland worker Andrea Miller. "Someone's just made a joke about Kevin Keegan."

Like many offices across the North East, Newcastle United's new manager is a popular topic of banter. But unlike most work places, staff at Connexions Northumberland are dealing with a new employer, a new structure and a spate of redundancies.

As a result of a tendering process last year, private contractor Igen will run the service after the council handover in April. Employees will transfer to Igen and retain their terms and conditions. Connexions Northumberland chief executive Austin McNamara says redundancies are inevitable - but he is convinced most adviser posts will be safe.

"We don't know what the future has in store," says Miller. "But life goes on and there are still young people needing help - and there is still time to make jokes about Keegan."

Just before Igen takes over, McNamara is organising a party to celebrate staff achievements. "This will not be a time for sadness. We can all feel proud of what we've achieved and will continue to achieve."

CASE STUDY - CONNEXIONS HERTFORDSHIRE

Model after April: Merged with the council's youth service, with teams divided into 10 local areas

Reasons for the move: "To ensure services for young people are seamless and closer to them," says Andrew Simmons, Connexions Hertfordshire's chief executive

How Antonia Marshall, 18, gained eight GCSEs is nothing short of a miracle. After being attacked by her mentally ill mother, she found herself homeless and forced to spend precious revision time battling red tape just to get a new home and benefits.

"It was a tough time. No one was able to help and I was being pushed from one official to another. I had no money and I had to stay at my boyfriend's parents place. That was until I got in touch with Karen at Connexions," she says.

Karen Telford, community manager for the service in the Watford area, took on Antonia's case, steering her through the system. "Within a day a cheque arrived through the door and soon after I was offered a place to live. It was amazing," says Antonia.

Telford's main priority was to ensure Antonia kept on with her studies, so she worked with officials in the housing and benefits departments to give her as stable a home life as possible. This was made even more difficult as during this time Antonia had fallen victim to bullying and was relying on home tutoring.

Hertfordshire County Council hopes the way young people like Antonia are helped will improve from April when the local authority takes over direct control of Connexions. As part of a merged service, Connexions teams will be based in 10 rather than four localities, making professional relationships stronger and staff more accessible for young people.

Telford explains how Antonia could have been helped faster. "She was not referred to us by benefits or housing staff, but by her boyfriend's mum. It was disappointing these professionals didn't think to contact us. I hope they do under the new system," she adds.

But is such poor communication between professionals common across all agencies? Louise Jones, Connexions Hertfordshire's local service manager, believes it isn't, pointing to work already going on between Connexions and local schools, where staff are working with advisers to help those such as Antonia early on.

Indeed, success has been achieved judging by the proportion of young people not in employment, education or training. This dropped from 5.9 per cent in 2002 to 3.9 per cent last year - a figure to which Antonia, now studying beauty therapy, could easily have been added.

CASE STUDY - CONNEXIONS BRADFORD

Model after April: Standalone council-run service

Reasons for the move: "We kept the structure and contracts in place as much as possible to minimise disruption," says Chris Whiley, assistant director of localities at Bradford Council's children and young people's services

Judy Edwards' main fear is ending up on benefits like her mum. "I'm determined to make a success of my life," says the 17-year-old A-level student.

Last year, Edwards found herself facing homelessness and her dreams of university lay in tatters. "It looked like I would have to quit and find a job," she says. But Bradford's Connexions service helped her find accommodation through the Foyer network, allowing her to finish her studies.

Liz Hemsley, Connexions Bradford's centre manager, says Judy is one of hundreds helped each year by the service's "holistic approach". "We don't just do careers guidance, we have specialists for looked-after children, mental health, youth offending and housing," she says.

Figures for those not in employment, education or training are high in Bradford, but have reduced from about 14 per cent six years ago to 9.3 per cent this year. Hemsley is optimistic this will drop even further after the council takes over responsibility for funding this April.

Under current arrangements, advice services are commissioned by Connexions West Yorkshire and contracted out to bodies such as Careers Bradford. After April the commissioning system will remain, as will the 22 advice services contracts in place.

The only change, says Hemsley, is that the commissioning board will change its name to Connexions Bradford. "It looks like it will be business as usual for us," she adds.